Folded with Adam Bienkov

Share this post
The Conservatives' huge defeat in North Shropshire means the end of Boris Johnson's premiership is now in sight
adambienkov.substack.com

The Conservatives' huge defeat in North Shropshire means the end of Boris Johnson's premiership is now in sight

Boris Johnson's spell over his party has been broken. His exit as PM is now only a matter of time.

Adam Bienkov
Dec 17, 2021
Comment
Share

The North Shropshire by-election could not be any worse for Boris Johnson.

Coming after an already dire few weeks for his premiership, the 34% swing to the Liberal Democrats, in what was previously an ultra safe Leave-voting Conservative seat, will now pose an existential threat to his leadership.

Twitter avatar for @AdamBienkovAdam Bienkov @AdamBienkov
BREAKING: The Lib Dems have won the North Shropshire by-election. Helen Morgan (LD): 17,957 Neil Shastri-Hurst (Con): 12,032 Absolutely crushing defeat for Boris Johnson's party.

December 17th 2021

429 Retweets2,757 Likes

The Tories’ share of the vote fell by half with the Lib Dems storming to their second stunning by-election result within months.

Lib Dem canvassers reported to me that voters had expressed a new and deep personal distaste for Johnson following his involvement in the “partygate” scandal.

This collapse in Johnson’s popularity, combined with the apparent spectacular revival of the Lib Dems, will now hand the prime minister’s Conservative critics everything they need to get rid of him.

Johnson’s downfall may not come immediately. Conservative MPs have just departed for the Christmas recess and he still has a chunk of goodwill left from his landslide election victory in 2019.

However, that stock of goodwill is rapidly running out and will likely not survive another few weeks like the few we have just had.

Twitter avatar for @AdamBienkovAdam Bienkov @AdamBienkov
A Lib Dem MP told me earlier this week there was a chance they would "romp it" to victory in North Shropshire. Looks like they were right.
Lost Without Brexit: North Shropshire By-Election Shows ‘Tories Really Don’t Have A Message’ – Byline TimesConservative MPs fear that they will lose the safe seat – with traditional voters struggling to find reasons to stick with the party, reports Adam Bienkovbylinetimes.com

December 17th 2021

24 Retweets150 Likes

Conservative MPs who I spoke to last week were clear that their patience was quickly running out with the prime minister, as was evident by the huge parliamentary rebellion against his latest Covid measures this week.

One Conservative MP, Sir Roger Gale, broke cover this morning to warn that Johnson had “one more strike and he’s out.”

Twitter avatar for @SirRogerGaleSir Roger Gale MP @SirRogerGale
This election result reflects the very real anger felt by the electorate towards Downing Street. The Prime Minister now has the Christmas recess to re-group. Nobody wants a leadership challenge in the middle of the pandemic but one more strike and he’s out.

December 17th 2021

24 Retweets77 Likes

One former minister who I spoke to predicted that the real crunch for Johnson will come at the next local elections in May. One or two by-elections may be written off by some as midterm blues, but a truly dire set of local elections would likely be the final straw for most Conservative MPs.

But whenever the end of Johnson’s leadership comes, it is now clear that the end is coming. Johnson’s spell over his party has been broken and they are finally starting to see him for who he really is.

As one former Conservative minister told me last week, the sense that we have entered “the end of the regime” for Johnson’s government is now overwhelming. It is increasingly difficult to see a viable way for him to turn it around.

There will be a fightback of course. In the coming hours we can expect to hear lots of calls from Conservatives for a “reset” in Downing Street, with a new team brought in to “professionalise” Johnson’s operation.

Twitter avatar for @montieTim Montgomerie 🇬🇧 @montie
I don't just blame the PM either. Why hasn't the Cabinet insisted on the professionalisation of No10? Why aren't they acting against the U-turns, the opportunism and the shallowness of the govt's whole approach? The historic majority won two years ago is being squandered.

December 17th 2021

18 Retweets142 Likes

However, as I have written here before, the real problem with Boris Johnson’s administration is Boris Johnson himself. Over the past two years he has demonstrated time and again that he is simply incapable of governing and no amount of new policy chiefs, or deputy PMs will alter that basic fact.

Johnson may survive for a little longer. He may even survive for quite a bit longer.

But last night’s result shows he has finally been found out. The end of the Johnson regime is now only a matter of time.

Please sign up for a full subscription to Folded with Adam Bienkov to get every edition direct to your inbox.

CommentComment
ShareShare

Create your profile

0 subscriptions will be displayed on your profile (edit)

Skip for now

Only paid subscribers can comment on this post

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in

Check your email

For your security, we need to re-authenticate you.

Click the link we sent to , or click here to sign in.

TopNewCommunity

No posts

Ready for more?

© 2022 Adam Bienkov
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Publish on Substack Get the app
Substack is the home for great writing